News / Calgary

Alberta NDP support continues to decline: Survey

Numbers from a ThinkHQ/Metro online research panel show that even Fortress Edmonton is crumbling

The NDP's support in Edmonton – the party's traditional stronghold – appears to be waning.

Justin Tang / The Canadian Press

The NDP's support in Edmonton – the party's traditional stronghold – appears to be waning.

To some, it may come as no surprise that the NDP are trailing the UCP in provincial polls.

What’s surprising is the ground the province’s governing party is losing in its stronghold of Edmonton.

The results of an exclusive ThinkHQ/Metro online research panel show the UCP would take 43 per cent of decided voters, while the NDP would take only 24 percent provincewide. The Alberta Party would capture 7 per cent, the Liberals 4, and 18 per cent would be undecided.

Marc Henry, president of ThinkHQ, was most intrigued by the results out of Edmonton.

He said when the city’s entire metropolitan area is considered, including the bedroom communities surrounding city limits, the NDP have dropped 4 percentage points since August, while the UCP have gained 6 points.

Henry said support for the NDP is crumbling in those working-class bedroom communities. He thinks that is in part because the economic cushion they had is finally giving way.

“The economy is starting to catch up with them up there,” he said.

Lori Williams, political scientist and professor at Mount Royal University, thinks the economy is one half of the reason why the UCP is gaining ground.

Even though the latest figures show Alberta’s economic growth is far outpacing any other province, that growth doesn’t benefit everyone.

“We’re not replacing all of the jobs that were lost,” said Williams. “Some jobs are coming up in other sectors.”

The other reason is because of Jason Kenney’s leadership.

“At least so far, Jason Kenney is looking like a credible alternative — somebody people want to take a good look at,” she said.

The study was conducted with an online research panel and is therefore a non-random sample. The margin of error on a probability sample this size would be plus or minus 2.7 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

To participate in the online panel, visit voiceofalberta.com

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