News / Halifax

Liberal and PC parties in 'dead heat' in Nova Scotia election campaign: poll

The survey of more than 1,000 Nova Scotians by Forum Research shows support for both parties 'stastically tied'

Liberal Premier Stephen McNeil (left) and PC leader Jamie Baillie

Metro File

Liberal Premier Stephen McNeil (left) and PC leader Jamie Baillie

With less than two weeks left before the May 30 provincial election, polling numbers released Thursday put the governing Liberals and the opposition Progressive Conservatives in a dead heat.

The poll of 1,057 Nova Scotians by Forum Research shows among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals lead with 37 per cent, but are “statistically tied” with the Progressive Conservatives at 35 per cent. The NDP are supported by 25 per cent.

“I think really it really isn’t over until it’s over these days. This will go right down to the wire, I’m pretty sure,” Lorne Bozinoff, president and founder of Forum Research, said in an interview.

“It is a dead heat right now. With the NDP having a big chunk of the third party support, it can go any way. All of this has happened because the Liberals have lost four points since our last poll and the Tories have gained five points.”

Bozinoff said it will all come down to swing voters and whether the Liberals can get those four or five points lost since the last poll.

“If they can, they’ll get that nine point spread back. So we’re not talking about 95 per cent of the electorate changing their minds,” he said.

“We’re talking about five per cent changing their minds and going from intending Tory to intending Liberal and that’s what this is going to come down to. This is going to come down to those five per cent swing voters and how they react.”

The poll also suggests 28 per cent approve of Premier Stephen McNeil, but more than six in 10 say they disapprove of his job as premier. 

The poll was conducted May 15 and 16, and carries a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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